by Following the latest Israel-Iran conflict, specialists caution that the Islamic Republic continues to pose a significant long-term strategic risk—not solely due to its nuclear aspirations, but also because of a government that, as some claim, only acknowledges strength.
It's an issue with the regime's culture," Beni Sabti, a senior Iran analyst at The Institute for National Security Studies, said to The Times of Israel. "If you approach only through diplomacy, and they don't perceive the stick... they will consider you weak.
Sabti highlighted the lasting significance of former U.S. president Theodore Roosevelt's saying "Speak softly and carry a big stick." He contended that without a genuine threat of military power, diplomacy by itself is unlikely to prevent Tehran's aspirations.
The 12-day confrontation, which ended with U.S. air strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, might have harmed critical locations and slowed down weapon development, but Sabti stated it did not significantly alter the essence of the danger.
"The regime could return. We didn't eliminate them," he stated.
Obstacles for Iran's weapons, not its goals
On June 22, the US attack focused on Iran's subterranean enrichment sites, such as centrifuge systems located far below Natanz, Isfahan, and particularly Fordo. These locations were crucial for Iran's production of uranium suitable for weapons.
Dr. Anna Erickson, a nuclear engineering professor at Georgia Tech, mentioned that the attack targeted the centrifuges responsible for enriching uranium to hazardous levels. Inan analysisRegarding The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news outlet, Erickson stated that Iran has consistently focused on both the number and advancement of its centrifuge technology.
"Prior to the strike," she wrote, "Iran was running 6,500 IR-2m centrifuges, nearly 4,000 IR-4 centrifuges, and more than 3,000 IR-6 centrifuges." These newer models greatly surpass the older IR-1 versions in terms of efficiency and stealth.
For example, the IR-6 is capable of generating "10 separative work units annually" — a significant improvement in efficiency that might enable Iran to transition from 60 percent enrichment to weapons-grade material within weeks. The newer IR-9 centrifuge, which is still undergoing testing, has the potential to multiply that output by five.
Erickson pointed out that Iran had accumulated approximately 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium prior to the attack — sufficient for ten nuclear weapons.
It is unknown whether this stockpile remained undamaged.
During the conflict, the IDF also focused on Iran's missile program, asserting that they have greatly reduced its missile manufacturing capabilities and postponed its capacity to produce long-range weapons in large quantities until at least 2027.
Nevertheless, Sabti suggested that these obstacles should not lead to a sense of self-satisfaction.
It's not solely concerning the missiles or the nuclear program. It's related to the regime's stability," he stated, mentioning that the US and Israeli attacks also focused on IRGC generals, command centers, and the infamous Evin Prison. "If [Israel] had continued for a few more days, who can say, perhaps the regime wouldn't still be in power.
Tehran’s crumbling proxy network
In an interview with The Times of Israel, Menahem Merhavy, a researcher at the Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at The Hebrew University, stated that Iran is currently more isolated than at any other time.
Iran has no friends," he stated. "The conflict has shown how isolated it truly is.
He concluded that the so-called "Axis of Resistance" — comprising terrorist affiliates in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon — has been significantly weakened, with minimal prospects for recovery in the near future.
"Within the next five years, we're expected to witness a significantly weaker, or possibly nonexistent, opposition front," Merhavy stated.
Certainly, following Hamas's attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, the IDF has been consistently striking Iranian-aligned militant groups throughout the area. In Gaza, Israel stated it has operational control overnearly 70%along the Strip as of Monday, with talks regarding a possible truce and prisoner exchange deal with a diminished Hamas are taking place.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah — previously Iran's strongest ally — has experienced significant casualties. Recent reports from Saudi media indicate that approximately 4,000 Hezbollah fighters, officers, and high-ranking officials were killed during the group's conflict with Israel, which concluded with a truce in November 2024. On Friday, information surfaced suggesting that Hezbollah is contemplating reducing its involvement as a military organization.
In fact, all of Iran’s proxies remained largely on the sidelinesDuring the recent 12-day Israel-Iran confrontation, experts linked their caution to a mix of domestic political influences and the increasing impact of almost two years of regional conflict and unrest.
The decline of Iran's terrorist network in the Middle East indicates the current condition of the regime.
The Iranian government is fragile," Sabti stated. "We must continue to maintain pressure on them.
The post-Khamenei question
Although there has been recent turmoil and increasing pressure, both Merhavy and Sabti still doubted that Iran is close to a change in government.
"Regime shifts rarely occur through air strikes," Merhavy pointed out.
At 86, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is expected to be replaced in the near future, but most of his potential successors are ideological loyalists. Names floated as candidates include his son Mojtaba Khamenei; senior regime insiders Sadeq Larijani and Mohsen Araki; and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
As per Merhavy, although these candidates are expected to continue the regime's ideological direction, they might adopt a more conservative stance.
He said that the contenders are likely to follow in the supreme leader’s footsteps, “but with the lesson learned from Khamenei that Iran can pay a very heavy price for this [rhetoric].”
Still, Sabti didn’t rule out a Soviet-style unraveling.
It might occur unexpectedly. Perhaps within two hours there could be revolts, or perhaps in two months. We are unaware of the catalyst, but the frustration and dissatisfaction have existed for many years.
A successful shift, Sabti stated, would necessitate a military-supported internal overthrow.
It can only happen from above," he stated. "Certain generals — from the IRGC or the military — could assume control and make this regime more moderate... If it arises from the people, it could turn very violent.
Why the rod continues to be significant
While nuclear talks were reportedly set to resume in Oslo this week between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, US President Donald Trump has rejected any suggestion of renewed negotiations.
I'm not giving Iran anything," he stated on Truth Social last Monday. "And I'm not even communicating with them since we completely destroyed their nuclear facilities.
Although he maintains his position, many continue to claim that diplomacy and outside monitoring are the only realistic long-term options.
A coerced agreement isn't sufficient," Merhavy stated. "You need a strong oversight body to monitor it. [The Iranians] will seek an agreement because they have no alternative.
However, Sabti emphasized that diplomacy alone is not enough.
Following this conflict, we can't depend entirely on diplomatic efforts," Sabti remarked. "Perhaps war is simply a different form of diplomacy—another method to attain your objectives.
However, he contended, for enduring transformation in Iran, the Iranian population needs to sense they have support from the global community.
"True transformation must originate from the US president—engaging with the populace, not just the government," he stated.
Sabti emphasized the critical role of American leadership in shaping public opinion within Iran, stating that messages coming directly from the White House have a much stronger impact than those from Jerusalem.
Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shared a video on June 13 aimed at the Iranian population—stating that Israel's military efforts were meant to "open the way for you to gain your freedom" and referring to the Islamic Republic as an "evil and repressive government"—the Trump administration has not yet made a direct statement to Iranians.
I am quite surprised that [Trump] isn't engaging with the Iranian people. The people and the government rely on the words of the US president," Sabti stated. "Israel is insignificant to them.
The post ‘We didn’t wipe them out’: Why Iran is still dangerous even after key strikes appeared first on The Times of Israel.
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